The announcement of Apple switching to Intel has caused rampant speculation, from Apple making the biggest mistake ever, to OS X will kill off Linux, and finally to Intel will buy out Apple. The critical flaw in all that speculation is that it ignores the fundamental fact that Apple’s fundamental arch-enemy is Microsoft. Blood-fuels do not go away, and therefore Apple’s actions must be examined in that context.

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In continuing with my series on the economic examination of Settlers of Catan, we’ll look at legality of derivative or futures trading.

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In continuing with my series on the economic examination of Settlers of Catan, we’ll look at the function of brokers.

In Catan, trading is vital, but a player can only initiate a trade with another player on his/her turn. This can be a severe setback, especially since a player can build on every turn. The lost opportunity to trade with any other player can be critical.

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To continue with the previous post, Settlers of Catan is a game of macro-economics and the players serve as the open market.

In the game, there are commodities that players trade: wood, brick, wheat, sheep, and ore. The value of the commodities rises and falls depending on where the players are in their development. At this point, the game is relatively straight forward. However, if the players stop there, they are missing entire financial markets, the most important being derivatives.

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I’ve been thinking about Settlers of Catan for the past several weeks. After playing online for several weeks, I realized something. Contrary to what many of the strategy guides online, there is no “correct” strategy. There is no grand strategy that will lead to a win. What works in one game can and will fail in another. There are too many variables–dice rolls, board layout, hidden tiles, initial settlement placement, development cards–to make an grand strategy. So how does one analyze the game without tedious trial and error?

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